Confirmation Bias
In a sentence, confirmation bias is the [often]-involuntary practice of favoring information or tweaking information to fit ones World’s view and opinions.
In many aspects, confirmation bias can be viewed as a psychological self-defense mechanism, or an evolutionary tactic that keeps people from harm.
It is a quick way for people to sift through the volumes of information that bombard us daily in an efficient manner. When faced with challenges of “fight or flight” or needing to make snap decisions immediately, this comes in handy to get one potentially out of harm’s way. On a daily basis, it can be a bit of a mundane stretch. However, the decisions we make in this context, don’t have to be right or factual.
However, is this an honest way of looking at the world? Absolutely not. Confirmation bias does a few things. It provides a foundation for “like-minded” people to gather in groups (safety) that share the same beliefs. But it also builds self-confidence by seeing one’s beliefs validated in the world around them. It doesn’t matter if these held beliefs are factual, incorrect, racist, xenophobic or dangerous. Just the simple fact that an individual can see their opinions illustrated around them is enough.
When it comes to confirmation bias, people are more likely to process information to support their beliefs when those beliefs are highly self-relevant or personally important. The partisan nature of politics is a prime example of this. People have a particularly hard time processing information when it contradicts one’s beliefs. And this makes sense as an evolutionary tactic as mentioned above. Because no one likes to be proven wrong. No one likes to be made to feel gullible, inferior or ignorant. Because this is a direct attack on one’s confidence.
In many ways, confirmation bias is a cognitive shortcut that makes decision-making more efficient. It unfortunately, usually happen within our own “echo-chambers”. And the greater we believe or the more entrenched we are in our beliefs, confirmation bias only strengthens those notions.
For example, if someone who believes in Bigfoot or other cryptids heads out into the Canadian wilderness or the PNW (Pacific Northwest) looking for Sasquatch, they will invariably find evidence of their beliefs, no matter how flimsy or small.
So how does this affect the World of the paranormal? Well, in pretty much the same way it affects politics, advertising, employment or the media.
If an individual or group investigates a location “known” to harbor paranormal activity (Trans-Allegheny, Bobby Mackey’s, The Queen Mary for example), then there’s already pre-conceived notions that one must deal with. Keep in mind, these are external to the self. The pre-conceived notions that one brings to an investigation based on belief are another hurdle one must overcome to make informed decisions.
For example, while walking around 150-year-old jail at night, are the sounds one hears evidence of the phantasmagorical or are they creaks & groans of the wood settling and responding to temperature? The cold spots one feels while wandering around, are they evidence or spirits or drafts finding their way in via cracks? And then there’s the fact that certain materials absorb & release heat at different rates (IE: stone, brick, wood, carpeting etc.). Electricity flickers based on the wiring degradation (age) and how well the wiring is shielded. And then there’s the environment. A 150-year-old jail can be musty, damp, old and noisy. We can’t forget all that history (usually violent and sad) that goes into play into our opinions about a place. But in the words of that wise old sage, Yoda, ‘death in a place, does not a haunting make.’
The theory of conformation bias has been around a long time, but it wasn’t until the 1960’s, that the cognitive psychologist, Peter Wason developed a test proving it. Known as the Wason Rule Discovery Task, he proved that people will seek out information that confirms their beliefs.
The three take-a-ways from his experiment show that:
1.) People tend to avoid cognitive dissonance
2.) Confirmation bias does build confidence
3.) It enables one to fit into a group or society of similarly minded people
The paranormal investigator must be comfortable with failure, must be aware that cognitive dissonance is a likely outcome and be accepting that sometimes, our pre-conceived notions can lead us into false positives or ‘black swan events.’ Heuristics isn’t the end-all, be-all when it comes to making informed decisions. The only way to avoid falling into the trap of self-fulfilling beliefs, is to mandate self-awareness and use criticism & doubt as tools to measure evidence against.
1.) https://Britannica.com/science/confirmation-bias
2.) https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias
3.) https://verywellmind.com/what-is-a-conformation-bias-2795024